Description: Health Watch, Issue 79, December 2015, Health Watch

Description: 1994 SOA Spring Meeting, Orlando. In this session the panel consider the question of uncertainty in loss reserves including discussion of sources and measurement. The panelists analyzed the same data set from different perspectives and discussed the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches.

Description: The Johns Hopkins ACG Team's comments regarding their participation in the Comparative Analysis of Claims-Based Tools for Health Risk Assessment.

Description: This chapter focuses on creating practical models that aid in the prediction of the risk of readmission to a specific hospital within 30 days of discharge for Medicare patients, to aid in the identification and stratification of at-risk patients for hospitals considering building an intervention program in a cost-effective manner. For readers who wish to develop their own predictive model, a dataset is provided on the Actexmadriver.com website, and R code is provided in the appendix to this chapter.

Description: When setting reserves, multiple methods are often used in the creation of the reserve estimate. Judgment is warranted to combine these different estimates into a final recommendation. This paper describes two techniques that can be used to combine these estimates that may result in better accuracy and lower variance.

Description: This article compares three potential approaches to determining new coefficients for health-based risk scoring models: full recalibration, p-value credibility weighting, and penalized ridge regression.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.